Risk Assessment Modeling Tool (RAMoT)

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMYSMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH (SBIR) PROGRAMSBIR 21.4 Broad Agency Announcement (BAA)Army Applied SBIR Opportunity (ASO) Announcement                        April 1, 2021: ASO issued for pre-releaseApril 14, 2021: Army begins accepting proposalsMay 20, 2021: Deadline for receipt of proposals no later than 12:00 p.m. ET     IMPORTANTDeadline for Receipt: Proposals must be completely submitted no later than 12:00 p.m. ET, May 20, 2021. Proposals submitted after 12:00 p.m. will not be evaluated. The final proposal submission includes successful completion of all firm level forms, all required volumes, and electronic corporate official certification. Classified proposals will not be accepted under the DoD SBIR Program. This BAA and the Defense SBIR/STTR Innovation Portal (DSIP) sites are designed to reduce the time and cost required to prepare a formal proposal. The DSIP is the official portal for DoD SBIR/STTR proposal submission. Proposers are required to

submit proposals via DSIP; proposals submitted by any other means will be disregarded. Proposers submitting through this site for the first time will be asked to register. Effective with this announcement, firms are required to register for a login.gov account and link it to their DSIP account. See section 4.14 for more information regarding registration.   The Small Business Administration, through its SBIR/STTR Policy Directive, purposely departs from normal Government solicitation formats and requirements and authorizes agencies to simplify the SBIR/STTR award process and minimize the regulatory burden on small business. Therefore, consistent with the SBA SBIR/STTR Policy Directive, the Department of Defense is soliciting proposals as a Broad Agency Announcement.SBIR/STTR Updates and Notices: To be notified of SBIR/STTR opportunities and to receive e-mail updates on the DoD SBIR and STTR Programs, you are invited to subscribe to our Listserv by emailing DoDSBIRSupport@reisystems.com.Help Desk: If you have questions about the Defense Department's SBIR or STTR Programs, please call the DoD SBIR/STTR Help Desk at 1-703-214-1333, or email to DoDSBIRSupport@reisystems.com.Topic Q&A: The Topic Q&A for this BAA opens on April 1, 2021 and closes to new questions on May 4, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET. Proposers may submit written questions through Topic Q&A at https://www.dodsbirsttr.mil/submissions/login or through the SBIR Mailbox at usarmy.pentagon.hqda-asa-alt.mbx.army-applied-sbir-program@mail.mil. In Topic Q&A, the questioner and respondent remain anonymous and all questions and answers are posted electronically for general viewing. Once the BAA closes to proposal submission, no communication of any kind with the topic author or through Topic Q&A regarding your submitted proposal is allowed.Questions should be limited to specific information related to improving the understanding of a particular topic’s requirements. Proposing firms may not ask for advice or guidance on solution approach and you may not submit additional material to the topic author. If information provided during an exchange with the topic author is deemed necessary for proposal preparation, that information will be made available to all parties through Topic Q&A. Proposing firms are advised to monitor Topic Q&A during the BAA period for questions and answers. Proposing firms should also frequently monitor DSIP for updates and amendments to the topics.This Army Applied SBIR Opportunity (ASO) is issued under the Army Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) for SBIR/STTR 21.4. All proposals in response to the technical area(s) described herein will be submitted in accordance with the instructions provided under 21.4, found here: https://beta.sam.gov/opp/b79ded14dcf54451bcfb11bddf5cd259/view?keywords=%22army%20sbir%22&sort=-relevance&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1.a. EligibilityThe eligibility requirements for the SBIR/STTR programs are unique and do not correspond to those of other small business programs. Please refer to Section 3.1, Eligible Applicants, of BAA 21.4 for full eligibility requirements.b. Anticipated Structure/Award InformationPlease refer to Section 1, Funding Opportunity Description, provided in BAA 21.4 for detailed information regarding SBIR/STTR phase structure and flexibility. For this BAA, Department of the Army will accept Phase I proposals for the cost of up to $259,613 for a 6-month period of performance. Proposers should refer to Section 4, Application and Submission information, of BAA 21.4 for detailed proposal preparation instructions. Proposals that do not comply with the requirements detailed in BAA 21.4 and the research objectives of this ASO are considered non-conforming and therefore are not evaluated nor considered for award.Phase I proposals shall not exceed 5 pages. Phase I commercialization strategy shall not exceed 2 pages. This should be the last section of the Technical Volume and will not count against the 5-page limit. Please refer to Appendix A of BAA 21.4 for detailed instructions on Phase I proposal preparation.c. Evaluation of ProposalsSection 5, Evaluation of Proposals, in BAA 21.4 provides detailed information on proposal evaluation and the selection process for this ASO.d. Due Date/TimeFull proposal packages (Proposal Cover Sheet, Technical Volume, Price/Cost Volume, and Company Commercialization Report inclusive of supporting documentation) must be submitted via the DoD SBIR/STTR Proposal Submission website per the instructions outlined in BAA 21.4 Section 4.3 Electronic Submission no later than 12:00 p.m. ET, May 20, 2021.Army SBIR 21.4 Topic IndexA214-028            Risk Assessment Modeling Tool (RAMoT)OBJECTIVE:Develop a high-fidelity real-time risk assessment tool for hypersonic testing to analyze test mission missile flight debris paths in different configurations (direction, velocity, altitudes) so as to predict the impact zone and ensure the safety of infrastructure and people surrounding the White Sands Missile Range.DESCRIPTION:White Sands Missile Range needs to enhance public safety with a high-fidelity real-time flight safety risk assessment modeling tool (RAMoT) that will be used to analyze the risk of proposed airborne missile test missions. The model will quantify in a variety of different missile debris path configurations the vulnerability models used to reduce risk in WSMR-adjacent populations. This tool is required to handle the modern next generation calculations that are required for airborne hypersonic weapons in order to maintain proper Flight Safety Analysis processes.RAMoT should be a single, comprehensive, government-owned Flight Safety Analysis computing tool that relies heavily on software development and can take full advantage of modern computing power to determine risk levels with high fidelity.  Risk analysis for the purposes of Flight Safety management is a time-intensive process which requires the capability to generate, interpret, and analyze large quantities of data.  RAMoT requires advanced computational models that can give accurate estimates of vulnerabilities based on physical models rather than engineering estimates.   As part of their flight safety analyst duties, operators are required to analyze risk for the missions being conducted on the range for a wide variety of programs involving many different configurations for missile flight debris path.  The wide variety of missile types, trajectories, and flight termination systems requires detailed analysis for each mission, where the operator must accurately quantify the risk to both adjacent populations and property.  In order to quantify the risk, the operator must be able to determine the vulnerability of things such as building, houses, aircraft, and unsheltered persons.  Historically the vulnerability models have been based on empirical data or engineering estimates that can overstate or understate the associated risk.   The intent of RAMoT is to provide accurate vulnerability models, more precisely quantify risk, and reduce the uncertainty associated with WSMR’s current empirical processes, giving operators more confidence in the analysis.RAMoT is a Flight Safety requirement that should act as a next-generation one-stop-shop tool that supports the entire Flight Safety Analysis process.  This process broadly consists of four steps: loading and extracting data, simulating vehicle behavior, trapping of state vectors, and risk analysis.  Each step requires the generation or the processing of many (up to tens or hundreds of thousands) of trajectories.PHASE I:In RAMoT Phase I, a six-month study is proposed for determining the scientific and technical merit and Feasibility.PHASE II:This phase will further develop the first phase, in which awards shall be made on the scientific, technical, and commercial merit of the Phase II proposal. Phase II is the principal research and development effort and is expected to produce a well-defined deliverable prototype. This Phase is expected to be a 1-year Phase.PHASE III:This phase intends to provide product/commercialization of Phase II prototype in which Department of Defense (DoD) and/or commercial Applications of SBIR/STTR-funded R&D are developed. This Phase is expected to be a one-year phase.KEYWORDS: Risk Analysis; Risk assessment; Flight safety analysis; Hypersonic testing; Debris risk; Debris propagation; Trajectory propagation; Vulnerability modelREFERENCES:https://www.wsmr.army.mil/fn/Pages/White-Sands-Flight-Safety-Officials-Play-Role-in-Space-Milestone.aspxhttps://www.nasa.gov/pdf/483000main_ModelingFlight.pdfhttps://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19870012908https://www.japcc.org/how-can-modelling-and-simulation-support-integrated-air-and-missile-defence/https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/p010957.pdf