R--WILDFIRE DATA RESEACH

WILDFIRE DATA RESEACHSources SoughtThe U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting market research to determine the availability of qualified SMALL BUSINESSES capable of providing wildfire research as described in the attached Statement of Work. This sources sought announcement is not a request for quote or proposal and the Government is not committed to award of a purchase order or contract pursuant to this announcement. The information resulting from this market research is simply for planning purposes to assist the Government in determining its acquisition strategy. The Government will not pay for any costs incurred in the preparation of information for responding to this notice.The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code - 54190, All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and associated size standard $19.5M apply to this announcement.All responsible sources may submit a capabilities statement detailing the ability of their service to meet the

Statement of Work included in this announcement.Responses to this announcement shall only be accepted through electronic mail addressed to dallan-loucks@usgs.gov and must be uploaded and received in their entirety no later than 05/16/2023 1500 ED. Responses submitted by hardcopy shall not be accepted or considered.Statement of WorkBackgroundGlobally wildfires have been increasing in recent decades, often resulting in destruction of both human lives and property as well as affecting natural resources (Neger and Rosas-Paz 2022, Balch et al. 2022). Global warming certainly has played a role in these increases (Williams et al. 2019), however, human ignitions are thought to be a major factor. For example, in southern California fires ignited during the autumn Santa Ana Wind season are 100% due to human ignitions, both intentional such as arson and indirectly through powerline failures (Keeley et al. 2021) and similar human impacts have been observed throughout the western US (Downing et al. 2022). In fact, areas of higher human density are related to both increased fire activity and a diminished role for climate (Syphard et al. 2017).Our previous work in California has shown that importance of human ignitions and the types of human ignitions vary regionally (Syphard and Keeley 2015, Keeley and Syphard 2017), and these patterns suggest a need for regionally different future fire management practices. An important extension of this research would be an understanding of these issues across the US. In particular, there is a need for investigating how ignition sources vary across the country and how this varies with population density, lightning frequency and climate changes. In addition, a dynamic understanding of how ignition sources have varied historically will be important in order to evaluate how past management and social changes have affected ignitions and subsequently area burned.There are various state and federal datasets of historical fires presented by ignition source that span different time periods and these have different advantages and disadvantages (Syphard and Keeley 2015, 2020) and in California both state and federal fire histories provide more than a century of data spatially explicit to different regions (Keeley and Syphard 2017). However, across the US state records typically cover a limited time period and it appears that U.S. Forest Service (USFS) historical data are the most complete extending back to 1940.Work requirementsContractor will develop a complete set of USFS fire data that contains for each ignition source the annual number of fires and area burned. This data set would extend from 1940 to 2021. In addition, regional data on changes in population density would be needed to evaluate how demographic changes have correlated with changes in ignition sources. Finally, contractor will need to analyze using ¿Prameter elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model¿ (PRISM) climate data available online (www.prism.oregonstate.edu) to relate these annual changes in fire activity to climate change monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit.DeliverablesContractor will deliver a publishable scientific study that covers all 154 USFS forests in the US and how fire activity by ignition source has changed over the past 81 years.The paper must include:¿ Analysis of how the regional patterns have changed with respect to changes in climate and population density.¿ Utilization of appropriate statistical methodology for addressing significant differences associated with ignition source, population density and climate change.¿ Analysis of past management practices¿ How past management practices have contributed to these patterns¿ How future management practices will impact future fire activity.Contractor will provide deliverable as a manuscript in Word with graphics in any appropriate format.Experience and CapabilitiesContractor must show prior experience within the past five years of studying human-fire-climate relationships across different regions in the US.Contractor must have a minimum of 10 years experience analyzing fire statistics within different regions of the United States.Education:PhD in Geography or BiologyThe contractor must have a demonstrated capacity for:¿ data acquisition of fire statistics for all USFS forests from 1940 ¿ 2021¿ capacity for acquisition of climate and population data¿ clear demonstration of computing facilities capable of this work¿ expertise for the research design, data acquisition, analysis, data management, and interpretationCriteria of AcceptanceManuscript will be determined acceptable if it meets listed Deliverables.Period of Performance: Date of award through 12/31/2023.